ForecastWatch evaluates and compares the major weather forecast providers. We provide valuable, data-driven feedback to improve weather forecasts and forecast websites.
ForecastWatch works by:
- Gathering weather forecasts and observations from more than 1,200 worldwide locations
- Maintaining a historical database of 750+ million weather forecasts
- Notifying providers about forecast quality issues
- Benchmarking forecasts with publicly available forecasts
- Providing unbiased, data-rich reports for analysis and comparison
High-temperature predictions have improved significantly over the past 12 years, according to a new report from ForecastWatch, a Columbus, Ohio-based company that assesses the accuracy of weather forecasts. In fact, our ability to pin down the next day’s high temperature has improved by almost a degree Fahrenheit,” says founder Eric Floehr.
— from Popular Science article “Weather forecasts aren’t perfect, but they’re getting there”
High-temperature predictions have improved significantly over the past 12 years, according to a new report from ForecastWatch, a Columbus, Ohio-based company that assesses the accuracy of weather forecasts. In fact, our ability to pin down the next day’s high temperature has improved by almost a degree Fahrenheit,” says founder Eric Floehr.
— from Popular Science article “Weather forecasts aren’t perfect, but they’re getting there”
“Wet bias” in weather forecasting
In Nate Silver’s book, The Signal and the Noise, Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t, ForecastWatch founder Eric Floehr addresses “wet bias.” The book cites this weather data research by ForecastWatch:
“Most commercial weather forecasts are biased, and probably deliberately so. In particular, they are biased toward forecasting more precipitation than will actually occur — what meteorologists call a ‘wet bias.’”
Why the bias? Forecast consumers are pleasantly surprised if it turns out to be a nice day when rain was predicted. But they are upset with meteorologists if it rains when it wasn’t predicted.
A ForecastWatch Case Study
Background:
Pelmorex operates Pelomorex Weather Networks and Pelmorex Data Solutions. Based in Canada, it is an international company that delivers information networks and data solutions.
Pelmorex tracks the accuracy of its weather forecasts monthly in key geographic areas, using its own internal verification system. But the system was designed decades ago, specifically for the more Canadian focus of its business then. It would have required significant software engineering changes to meet expanding global needs.
Approach:
Upon the recommendation of a partner organization, Pelmorex contacted ForecastWatch about services to help expand its capabilities for internal verification of weather forecasts in countries outside Canada, including the United States. Pelmorex wanted to use ForecastWatch’s quality, independent data to be able to verify the accuracy of its weather forecasts.
ForecastWatch is being continuously developed and improved, with new features added frequently. It is responsive to customer needs and can quickly create solutions. ForecastWatch monitors forecast accuracy in 90 countries worldwide at more than 1,100 unique locations.
ForecastWatch is software as a service, allowing meteorologists to focus on being meteorologists, not software developers.
Results:
Working with ForecastWatch allows Pelmorex to compare its forecast accuracy to competitors, demonstrating how good their forecasts are in the marketplace.
This comparison allows Pelmorex to objectively measure changes made to its forecasting pipeline because they can see the changes relative to competitors. ForecastWatch’s data helps the company identify areas internally where it can potentially improve its weather technology, and it provides a valuable benchmarking system for Pelmorex. Its research and development associates monitor the forecasting technologies the company has put into production in recent years.
ForecastWatch is trusted by the leading weather forecasting companies and has had a long track record of satisfied customers. Pelmorex has been a customer for nine years.